Issue #4

Playing the Percentages
Charlie Kurta

The season is coming down the stretch, the trade deadline is closing in, and races are heating up (particularly in the West). Today we're going to look at each of the division leaders, their chances of holding on, and the likely threats for each crown.

ATLANTIC DIVISION

LEADER: PITTSBURGH PENGUINS ( 92 points, +11 margin)
GAMES LEFT: 23
ESTIMATED % FOR THE CROWN: 90 %

The Pens have spent most of the season lapping the Atlantic field, highlighted by an incredible 16 game winning streak that had many fans wondering if GM Dave McGowan had somehow gotten hold of Jimmy Page's ouija boards to summon help from the dark side. The reality is, the Pens are playing remarkable hockey in front of a revitalized Sean Burke, something that should make Wild fans want to reach for the lead pipes and pitchforks.

The pursuer(s):

NEW YORK RANGERS - The only club within even a shout (and even then only on a clear day) the Rangers just added veteran Jyrki Lumme, which should help but time's a' wastin', as they say. They need an epic run like the Penguins just had, but the hockey gods are rarely so egalitarian. Conventional wisdom says this one is over, and we agree.

NORTHEAST DIVISION
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LEADER : HARTFORD WHALERS (84 points, +5 margin)
GAMES LEFT : 21
ESTIMATED % FOR THE CROWN : 55%

As we'd covered previously, Hartford has had it going their way all season, but their lead isn't as big as you might have thought even a few short weeks ago. One might have thought it was a runaway, but Ottawa has closed the gap. The edge for now stays with the leaders but Hartford should be glad that a whale can't turn its head. The
pursuer(s):

OTTAWA SENATORS - They currently have a 14 point lead on Boston so, this is a singular pursuit unless something amazing happens. They've stumbled in the last 3, but should make up a few of those lost points with the Flames and Caps on the upcoming schedule. But they also have the Jets and Pens to contend with so, it's not going to be a cakewalk to gain ground.

CENTRAL DIVISION

LEADER : ST. LOUIS BLUES (63 points, +2 margin)
GAMES LEFT :20
ESTIMATED % FOR THE CROWN: 30%

A season after this division was the league's virtual pee trough, the race within has become the most compelling. The Blues blazed through the first 35 games or so, but have looked entirely mortal of late. Adding Shanny from New Jersey was supposed to shore up the front, but it hasn't worked out that way early. Meanwhile, Milwaukee, Minnesota and even Chicago have largely gotten right and have formed a pack. Here's a look:

MILWAUKEE ADMIRALS - Leading the charge with a valuable game in hand, Milwaukee looks likely to keep the pressure on down the stretch. Also, they have a knack for adding the right player at the right time. There have been rumors but nothing concrete yet. We bet it goes down to the wire.

MINNESOTA WILD - Next up is Minny, whose momentum has somewhat of a stop/start feel. They're largely most concerned with getting back into the post-season, but a division crown would mean a return to relevance. the addition of Madden has jump started the special teams, arguably their biggest weakness. With two games in hand and a little more consistency, just maybe....

CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS - The Blackhawks have some ground to make up, but have beaten Minnesota twice this week, and face the Blues head-to-head coming up, and 3 games in hand to boot. a tough schedule could slow them though.

PACIFIC DIVISION

LEADER : EDMONTON OILERS (84 points, +8 margin)
GAMES LEFT: 21
ESTIMATED % FOR CROWN: 70 %
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Careful and calculated as a (beloved) despot should be, VHL's leader and Oilers GM Chris Baker is as steady as ever, guiding the Oilers to the top spot at the moment by steadily adding a mix of top end talent and support players to resurrect the Oilers brand from oblivion. A stiff challenge from their countrymen in Vancouver aside, they look a solid bet to grab the ring....but:

VANCOUVER CANUCKS - Probably the most realistic competition, GM Matt Schroor didn't get to where he is by being an idiot. A slow start threatened to scuttle their season before it took shape, and they've shaved some age from their lineup while keeping the centerpieces and adding complimentary players. It may not get them the division but don't bet against them repeating their run from a year ago.
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WINNIPEG JETS - A longshot play, no doubt, but a skid by either front-runner could open the door. Craig Anderson is about as solid as a rookie tender can be, but do vets like Amonte, Selanne, and Oates have enough to carry the load for a steep climb ahead?

Beasts of the East or Best Western?
Steve Tindall

Lately there has been a debate of which is the dominant conference. There have been numerous debates, several arguments and more than a little trash talk. So I decided to do a little research (as little as possible) and see if there was any evidence to support either side of the argument. It made sense to me to look back at the last 5 seasons as it would give an odd number of years for tie breaks and enough years to see trends. 

    Let’s start with the most obvious metric, championships. The Stanley Cup Champions of the last 5 seasons are: 

S11- Ottawa Senators  EAST (still can’t believe these bums won) 
S10- San Jose Sharks WEST  (total hose job, damn game 7s) 
S9- Pittsburgh Penguins  EAST (the Empire isn’t supposed to win is it?) 
S8- Ottawa Senators  EAST (no idea how this flippin’ happened) 
S7- St. Louis Blues WEST  (complete fluke but it screwed PIT so it’s cool) 

   Okay so it ends up with the East getting a 3-2 edge in Cups. Granted both Sens Cups were complete horse shit but they still count. What was really interesting to me was the fact that every single of those series went to a game 7. That tells me that there is a lot of parity between the top teams. 

Advantage: East 

    So now let’s deal with the other end of the spectrum. Let’s go from first to worst. What team has finished dead last and stunk up the joint? 

S11- Kansas City Scouts  WEST  (the competition scalped them) 
S10- Calgary Flames  WEST   (the Kane rule anyone?) 
S9- Tampa Bay Lightning EAST (Deres really screwed the pooch this year) 
S8- Chicago Blackhawks  WEST  (tanking with class) 
S7- Chicago Blackhawks  WEST  (just making sure he got a good pick) 

    So here we see that 4 out of the five years we have the bottom of the barrel in the West. Now we have to give the conference a little bit of leeway on this one. Both expansion franchises were placed in the West and it was a given up until recently that the Blackhawks would finish last. It’s not like the East doesn’t have bad teams. Toronto stills stinks like month old limburger and Buffalo was a cellar dweller for many years. Hell, even the mighty, mighty Bruins were shite for a season. However, this is fairly obvious evidence that if you suck that you most likely play in the West. 

Advantage: East 

      Next, let’s move away from the teams and look at the individuals. It’s no big secret that if you want to have a great team you need a great player (or two). So now we’ll look at the Hart Trophy Winners: 

S11- Theo Fleury  WEST   (the little bastard is an elite scorer) 
S10- Steve Yzerman  EAST  (does he have to be on PIT?) 
S9- Mark Messier  EAST (not sad to see the Moose gone) 
S8- Steve Yzerman  EAST  (Dave I’ll give you 3 firsts and a Timmies card) 
S7- Mario Lemieux  WEST  (Mario when he was still Super) 

   Again it is close with the East coming out with the 3-2 advantage. This season it looks like Fleury and Yzerman are both in the running and Montreal’s Kirk Muller is challenging as well. Both conferences have great players but it’s still 

Advantage: East ​

   Now the final litmus test is where it makes all the difference for me. It is hard to quantify and there are no real measurable metrics. It’s who am I worried about playing? What opponents concern me? 

     In the West:  San Jose, Edmonton, Vancouver, and Winnipeg. 

I’m sorry Central Division, you guys don’t concern me. Yes even the Blues with the great season they are having. As for Saskatoon, Calgary and LA? Give me more games against them please.  

     In the East: Hartford, Pittsburgh, NYR, Buffalo, Philadelphia and I guess Ottawa (well not so much without Thornton). 

First up are the two regular season juggernauts in Hartford and Pittsburgh. No game against them is easy. The Rangers have shown they can play with anyone. Buffalo and Philly are both struggling but still have talented rosters that are a threat. Somehow Ottawa has strung together some impressive win streaks. Then there’s a team in Boston that not many teams want to play (especially if Holmqvist keeps playing like he has). 

Advantage: East 

  Now I know what a lot of you guys are gonna say. You’re just a homer with an eastern bias. The West is Best, we have the toughest division, yada yada yada…. 
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  Well sorry my western friends but the puck don’t lie. 

Money, Money, Money ... pt. II
Nathan Schroor

I only received positive feedback from my first money article, so I’ll continue to look at value of top line players in the Central Division this week.  Please keep in mind that the articles cannot be compared against each other because players were not looked at on a per game value.  In the first attempt players were looked at using an annual salary rate but for fairness and comparative purposes salaries will be broken down to their per game rate and then measured.  This won’t create the ‘wow’ factor of $150,000 per point costs (for some it still will) but it assesses value when compared at different times in the season.  I am going to try and work a per game into this article so the following three (and future articles) will have the means for comparison.  However, line combinations rarely stay the same all season for various reasons and surprisingly players don’t all stay in the same places all season.  With all that being said let’s get into it anyways… 

Chicago 

Position  Even Strength  Power Play  Salary 

LW – Doug Gilmour 17G / 31A; 5G / 13A; 11,000,000 
C – Pierre Turgeon 19G / 18A; 3G / 14A; 5,366,000 
RW – Stephane Richer 13G / 20A; 6G / 10A; 5,747,000 
Combined - 49G / 69A; 14G / 37A; 14,454,000 
Percentage of offense / Playing Time: 33.6% / 40% 
Price Per Point: $89,358 

Note: While certainly one of the most expensive lines in the league, it is surprising to note that aside from Doug Gilmour (understandable at 11 million per season) these guys produce at their pay grades.  Turgeon and Richer rank simply as average for the return on their salaries and all together they account for over a third of the team’s offense.  I’d say that in spite of the large numbers these guys are costing against the salary cap, the investment is one of the best in the league.  Sadly Turgeon is rumored to be on the move, and since beginning this article the Sedin’s and Glen Murray have taken over the helm. 

Detroit 

Position  Even Strength  Power Play  Salary
 
LW – Jere Lehtinen 7G / 5A; 1G / 8A; 3,540,000 
C – Doug Weight 13G / 14A; 9G / 14A; 7,917,000 
RW – Jimmy Carson 6G / 5A; 2G / 3A; 2,997,000 
Combined - 26G / 24A; 12G / 25A; 22,113,000 
Percentage of offense / Playing Time: 23.5% / 35% 
Price Per Point: $117,512 

Note: It pains me to write that Doug Weight has not gone to a better place.  Both Lehtinen and Carson while relatively low-cost rank bottom five in the division in even strength value, power play value and combined value.  In fact, of the 9 ratings for these 3 players they rank in the bottom third in 8 of them.  In fact, this is one of the poorest teams regarding value and production and is in serious need of some investment in both.  In this division, with Doug Weight and Nicklas Lidstrom on the roster, there is no reason not to compete for a playoff spot.  Perhaps some of those 4th round picks can play wing? 

Kansas City 

Position  Even Strength  Power Play  Salary 

LW – Niklas Hagman 4G / 5A; 4G / 6A; 550,000 
C – Andrei Nikolishin 9G / 12A; 3G / 9A; 2,341,000 
RW – Tomas Sandstrom 12G / 29A; 8G / 13A; 5,983,000 
Combined - 25G / 48A; 15G / 28A; 8,874,000 
Percentage of offense / Playing Time: 36.9% / 40% 
Price Per Point: $52,211 

Notes: It comes as no surprise that this is the cheapest line in the Division, but it is also the best value line.  Bearing in mind that Tomas’ numbers are also from playing with Kirk Muller and he is no small salary on his new line mates are also top in value in both phases and combined.  Niklas Hagman is the best value (it seems entry level contracts are almost automatic despite actual production) at $19,416 per point, with a projected rookie season of 28 points.  It is good to see Niko has finished 4th in the division at $47,581 per point with a 49-point projection.  Also, interesting to see is that this is the third central division team to be using physical on their top line after zero team used it from the Pacific division.  This line accounts for the highest percentage of team offense at just under 37%, 3.5% higher than any other team.
  
Milwaukee 

Position  Even Strength  Power Play  Salary 

LW – Alexei Zhamnov 19G / 16A; 6G / 13A; 3,706,000 
C – Rod Brind'Amour 19G / 28A; 9G / 16A; 7,898,000 
RW – Danton Cole 13G / 9A; 3G / 1A; 2,544,000 
Combined - 51G / 53A; 18G / 30A; 14,148,000 
Percentage of offense / Playing Time: 30.9% / 40% 
Price Per Point: $64,701 

Notes: This line is the only line that has more defence than offense as a strategy and is also one of the most cost-effective lines in the Division at even strength.  With Danton Cole costing a whopping $442,000 per PP point its no wonder GM Deres is trying to find him a new home and despite his lack of production the line is still the 2nd highest producing in the division (Chicago 169 to Milwaukee 152).  Zhamnov is one of only 4 forwards to finish top 5 in all 3 categories for value (even strength, PP and combined) and is the only one of them that is an established veteran and genuine top line player.   

Minnesota 

Position  Even Strength  Power Play  Salary  

LW – Peter Schaefer 15G / 11A; 2G / 5A; 1,500,000 
C – Mike Modano 18G / 30A; 7G / 11A; 6,362,000 
RW – Martin Straka 13G / 8A; 2G / 13A; 3,003,000 
Combined - 46G / 49A; 11G / 29A; 10,865,000 
Percentage of offense / Playing Time: 29.4% / 35% 
Price Per Point: $55,944 

Notes: The second-best value line is also the third cheapest.  While very good players at even strength (95 points 2nd in the division) they are less impressive on the power play (40 points 5th in the division).  Peter Schaefer is another of the top five in all three categories and the third best value in the division at $31,600 per point; even Mike Modano looks great with that big salary producing at $67,000 per point.  Minnesota, like Milwaukee are the only two clubs not using physical with their top players and along with Detroit are the only team not using their top at 40% even strength ice time.   

St. Louis 

Position  Even Strength  Power Play  Salary 

LW – Jason Blake 8G / 6A; 8G / 7A; 1,213,000 
C – Vinny Prospal 15G / 17A; 11G / 8A; 5,799,000 
RW – Russ Courtnall 10G / 9A; 2G / 3A; 3,141,000 
Combined - 33G / 34A; 21G / 18A; 10,153,000 
Percentage of offense / Playing Time: 24.7% / 40% 
Price Per Point: $64,081 

Notes: Jason Blake has been traded, which is too bad considering he was the 2nd best value producer in the division at $30,000 per point (write faster next time Nate).  This is the only team playing the automatic 1-2-2 strategy and is terrible 5 on 5 value wise; without all the big contracts of Doug Gilmour and Doug Weight the line still produces at a horrible $112,000 per even strength point.  Considerable help must be coming from the defense or other lines as these guys only account for 21% of the even strength offense.  Might be a point of reconsideration when Vinny’s name comes up for MVP when he isn’t carrying the team 5 on 5 as many might have expected; Doug Gilmour is almost the same value at twice the salary, so I’d throw a vote his way next time.   

Wasn’t expecting to throw out so many good things to Kansas City and Minnesota considering the play of the teams in the division, but the numbers don’t lie.  St. Louis has a perceived MVP but it might be a lot more of a supporting cast than we all originally suspect.  Very surprised at all the physical play in this division given that the Pacific had none of that. 

Value 

1. Kansas City 
   
2. Minnesota 
   
3. St. Louis 
   
4. Milwaukee 
   
5. Chicago 
   
6. Detroit 
   

Best Value Line (5,894,000 Cap Hit), ($124,982 Per Point) 

LW Niklas Hagman 
C Andrei Nikolishin 
RW Martin Straka 

Worst Value Line (14,454,000 Cap Hit), ($363,719 Per Point)…sigh 
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LW Jere Lehtinen 
C Doug Weight 
RW Jimmy Carson ​

Deep Dive: Defenders pt II
Matt Schroor

Let’s continue the look into offense from the blueline that was in last week’s VHL weekly. The stats are from GD 99, so they are a little outdated but paint the picture. Teams are relying more and more on the backend to provide offence. I will call it the Palmer method. We will look into the Atlantic this time around and remind everyone that the conference averages are 29.6% of goals, 48.7% of assists and 41.9% of points are scored by defenders. 

New Jersey 31% of Goals, 49% of Assists, and 43% of Points 

It is odd to see that last year’s Norris trophy winner’s team in just above average. He isn’t producing at the same pace as last year, but there is also a big drop off after him (41 points) and Brisebois (32 points). After that the team is filled with more defensive players who don’t play much offence. So the fact they are still above average is quite the feat.  

New York Islanders 22% of Goals, 44% of Assists, and 36% of Points 

They have the third lowest point production in the conference from the backend. They don’t score many goals and half of them are on the tradeblock. Other than Zubov there is no true offensive defenseman in the group. Salo is developing still and could see increased returns over the next number of years. The assist numbers aren’t bad, but increasing goal scoring from the blueline should be a priority.  

New York Rangers 18% of Goals, 36% of Assists, and 29% of Points  

O brother where art the offence from the defenders? There are actually three players with over 30 points and then a bunch of defensive defenders. Hatcher provided a solid boost. I think it is more because there is so much offence from the forwards that is bringing this totals down but the team could push for a president trophy if they got more help from the defense.  

Philadelphia Flyers 17% of Goals, 50% of Assists and 38% of Points 

As a team the Flyers have struggled for offence, but things should turn around after the distraction of Jagr’s contract dispute. The blue hasn’t been doing their part in filling the back of the net, but getting it to the forwards to score doesn’t seem like a problem. The team has more defensive dmen than offensive so low totals are not shocking.  

Pittsburgh Penguins 29% of Goals, 39% of Assists and 35% of Points 

Dejardins is playing unbelievable, Blake as well until his next injury, Housley is steady as always. Then three stay at home defenders who show up because they passed it too one of the very talented forwards.  

Tampa Bay Lightning 27% of Goals, 51% of Assists and 42% of Points 

Tampa Bay is another team that isn’t scoring a lot of goals in general, but just received a big lift with Jumbo Joe. Having his presence on the powerplay alone should help. They don’t have many scoring defenders, but Lydman is developing quickly and will probably lead the defenders in points.  

Washington Capitals 36% of Goals, 56% of Assists, 49% of Points 

The high number is a product of very low scoring in general by the Caps. Not all that surprising as they are fighting to land Rick Nash. They have moved two of their top defenders for future picks and players. Jeff Brown is offensively minded but does not factor into the long term plans. Good to see that Hamrlik and McCabe are producing despite a lack of forwards. This numbers should climb as more forwards are added.  
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There is a look at the Eastern conference defense scoring. If anyone has any statistical topics that you would like looked into let me know.  ​